The Kansas City Chiefs have been the dominant force in the AFC for the past few seasons. With quarterback Patrick Mahomes, head coach Andy Reid, and the team’s impressive mix of offensive firepower and opportunistic defense, the Chiefs have established themselves as one of the NFL’s most successful franchises of the last half-decade. Since 2019, the Chiefs have appeared in three of the last four Super Bowls, winning two championships, and they’ve become the gold standard for AFC teams.
However, as the 2025 NFL season progresses, there’s an emerging stat that Chiefs fans and analysts alike can’t ignore. It’s a trend that suggests the dominance of Kansas City’s reign in the AFC might be under serious threat, and the landscape of the conference is shifting in ways that could make the Chiefs’ path to another Super Bowl appearance far more complicated. For the first time in years, a potential new favorite in the AFC has emerged—and the numbers backing them are hard to ignore.
That new team? The **Buffalo Bills**, who have seen a resurgence of both offensive and defensive dominance under the leadership of quarterback Josh Allen and head coach Sean McDermott. This shift in the AFC’s hierarchy stems from a key statistic that the Chiefs should be concerned about: **turnover differential**.
### Turnover Differential: The Key Statistic
Turnover differential—the difference between turnovers given up by an offense and those taken away by a defense—has long been considered one of the most important indicators of success in the NFL. Historically, teams that consistently win the turnover battle have a significantly higher chance of reaching the playoffs, let alone making deep postseason runs. This is particularly important in the high-stakes, high-pressure environment of the AFC, where the margin for error is slim.
For years, the Chiefs have been able to ride the brilliance of Patrick Mahomes to compensate for their occasional struggles in this area. Mahomes is a generational talent capable of overcoming mistakes and producing big plays even in the face of adversity. But as other teams, especially the Buffalo Bills, have improved their defense and more consistently taken care of the ball, Kansas City’s vulnerability has started to show—especially when facing off against top-tier AFC competition.
### The Buffalo Bills and the Shift in AFC Power
The Buffalo Bills have emerged as a legitimate contender to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC. After years of being a playoff contender, the Bills are now seen by many as the team to beat, with one of the most complete rosters in the league. Led by Josh Allen, one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL, Buffalo has displayed both offensive firepower and defensive resilience in recent years.
The key change for Buffalo in 2025 is their improved turnover differential. Over the past few seasons, the Bills have ranked near the top of the league in turnover ratio, and their ability to protect the football while generating turnovers on defense has made them one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL. With Allen playing at an MVP level and the defense led by stars like linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and cornerback Tre’Davious White, the Bills are putting together a well-rounded team that could pose a serious threat to Kansas City’s AFC supremacy.
Through the first half of the 2025 season, Buffalo’s turnover differential stands out in particular. The Bills have a **+8 turnover differential**, ranking among the league’s best, whereas the Chiefs are closer to **+2**. This shift represents a major difference in how the two teams are approaching games. While the Chiefs’ offense remains potent, their defense has often struggled to force turnovers in crucial moments, whereas Buffalo’s defense has consistently created opportunities for its offense to capitalize on.
This difference could have massive implications when it comes to the postseason, where every single possession counts. In games between two high-caliber teams like the Bills and the Chiefs, the team that wins the turnover battle often comes out on top. And while Mahomes is still arguably the best quarterback in the NFL, his playmaking ability can be hindered when he’s put in positions where he’s forced to play from behind or take unnecessary risks.
### Kansas City’s Growing Vulnerability in Turnover Battle
The Chiefs have been relatively good at keeping the ball over the last few seasons, but their overall turnover differential has steadily decreased. In 2024, Kansas City finished the regular season with just a **+3 turnover differential**, which, while positive, ranked only 15th in the NFL. This year, that stat is even less favorable. While Mahomes and the offense are still capable of explosive plays and long drives, the team has struggled at times to maintain control of the ball and capitalize on turnovers when the defense has forced them.
There are specific areas where the Chiefs have shown vulnerability, especially on offense. Mahomes has thrown interceptions at a slightly higher rate than in previous seasons, often trying to make plays out of necessity. Additionally, the Chiefs’ running game has been inconsistent, and when the offense can’t establish the run, Mahomes faces more pressure to throw the ball, which sometimes leads to mistakes. In key games, these turnovers can swing momentum and shift the entire complexion of a game.
Defensively, while the Chiefs have a solid unit, they have not been able to generate as many takeaways as in years past. Kansas City’s defense has struggled with inconsistency, especially in their secondary. Although they have some standout players, like linebacker Nick Bolton and defensive tackle Chris Jones, the Chiefs have not been able to force turnovers at the same rate as the Bills or other AFC contenders. In the long run, this could cost them when they face off against other playoff-caliber teams, who, as we’re seeing with the Bills, can capitalize on those opportunities.
### Why the AFC’s New Favorite Matters
The AFC’s shifting power dynamic could have significant consequences for the Chiefs’ Super Bowl aspirations. Kansas City has been the cream of the crop for so long that many fans and analysts have come to expect them to waltz into the Super Bowl every year. But with the Bills’ improved defense, turnover differential, and Josh Allen playing the best football of his career, the AFC is no longer a one-horse race.
The emergence of Buffalo, along with other strong teams like the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals, means that the Chiefs will face more competition than ever before. A loss in the turnover battle, or a turnover-filled game, could derail their Super Bowl hopes, particularly against a team like Buffalo, who can control the tempo of a game through ball security and defensive dominance.
As the season progresses, the Chiefs will need to address this growing vulnerability in their turnover differential. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have the talent and experience to overcome challenges, but it’s clear that the Bills’ rise presents a real threat in the AFC.
### Looking Ahead: What the Chiefs Can Do
Kansas City needs to refocus on improving its turnover differential if they hope to remain the top team in the AFC. Mahomes and the offense will need to limit their mistakes and avoid forced throws that lead to interceptions. The defense, too, must step up its ability to create turnovers, whether through interceptions, fumbles, or other opportunities.
While the Bills look like the new team to beat, Kansas City has the pedigree to fight back. The Chiefs’ experience in high-pressure playoff games is invaluable, and Mahomes’ ability to perform in clutch moments is unmatched. But the Chiefs can’t afford to overlook the importance of turnover differential—if the Bills continue to excel in this area, Kansas City may find itself fighting for a Super Bowl spot rather than coasting to another appearance.
In what is shaping up to be one of the most competitive AFC seasons in recent memory, the Chiefs’ path to the Super Bowl will no longer be as straightforward as it has been in the past. And the stat that could decide their fate? Turnover differential—an area where Buffalo is showing they might just be the new kings of the AFC.
